Financial Modelling


Kaleidos offers consultancy services to manufacturing and commercial companies for the development of budgets and strategic plans, aimed at ensuring optimization of the financial and equity structure of its client companies.
In particular, Kaleidos can count on an innovative simulation tool for company scenarios (the Predictor program), which makes it possible to determine the impact of management decisions in a thorough, analytical way, thus avoiding the intrinsic forecasting mistakes resulting from traditional, statistics-based models. In practice, the simulation tool allows us to:

  • conduct a selective analysis for groups of variables, examining levels of operating efficiency, operating risk and financial vulnerability;
  • suggest management actions to be undertaken in order to optimize the financial structure;
  • identify one or more input variables needed to obtain the desired output.

Default Risk Sensitivity

After years of research, Kaleidos has developed a proprietary Default Risk Sensitivity Model. The model enables the user to perform an accurate sensitivity analysis on company rating models (Kaleidos also owns a proprietary rating model). In particular, the DRSM allows users to:

  • identify drivers for change, taking into account the respective impact of each variable (or group of variables) on a given rating;
  • rank each variable and/or group of variables, depending on the relative influence of each one of them on changes in the rating;
  • suggest management actions (‘what-if analysis’) to be undertaken in order to improve the forward-looking rating, especially in preparation of complex financial transactions (such as corporate bond issuance, spread on interest rate, etc.);
  • identify the maximum impact of each variable and/or group of variables on a given rating.

Kaleidos offers its advisory services for corporate default probability estimation, both during extraordinary transactions and within everyday management activities.